Autoregressive nonlinear time-series modeling of traffic fatalities in Europe

Yannis, George; Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

doi:10.1007/s12544-011-0055-4

European Transport Research Review

An Open Access Journal

Table 2 Log-transformed model estimation results (top: base, bottom: autoregressive model)

From: Autoregressive nonlinear time-series modeling of traffic fatalities in Europe

	Coefficient α			Coefficient β			Coefficient φ
	Estimate	Standard error	t-test	Estimate	Standard error	t-test	Estimate	Standard error	t-test
AT	−2,395	0,057	−42,122	−2,031	0,057	−35,857
BE	−2,521	0,074	−33,904	−2,056	0,077	−26,896
CY	−1,555	0,083	−18,642	−0,818	0,120	−6,808
DK	−4,004	0,278	−14,423	−3,047	0,273	−11,160
FI	−2,985	0,188	−15,884	−1,916	0,166	−11,528
FR	−2,565	0,091	−28,050	−2,236	0,100	−22,443
DE	−2,715	0,068	−40,134	−2,056	0,073	−28,224
EL	−1,210	0,048	−25,150	−0,694	0,024	−28,465
HU	−1,647	0,172	−9,569	−0,919	0,096	−9,567
IE	−3,353	0,224	−14,995	−2,073	0,164	−12,682
IT	−2,395	0,051	−46,635	−1,558	0,054	−29,118
LU	−1,994	0,071	−27,923	−1,671	0,082	−20,433
NL	−4,187	0,088	−47,684	−2,928	0,078	−37,472
PT	−1,340	0,078	−17,150	−1,012	0,053	−19,184
ES	−1,558	0,094	−16,500	−0,878	0,070	−12,540
UK	−3,566	0,117	−30,529	−2,248	0,112	−20,050
AT	−2,452	0,097	−25,263	−2,100	0,103	−20,420	0,451	0,155	2,910
BE	−2,509	0,159	−15,772	−2,045	0,173	−11,850	0,539	0,188	2,862
CY	−1,581	0,109	−14,456	−0,865	0,167	−5,191	0,079	0,300	0,263
DK	−3,526	0,662	−5,324	−2,540	0,675	−3,765	0,688	0,150	4,594
FI	−1,871	1,036	−1,805	0,149	0,713	0,209	0,940	0,040	23,539
FR	−2,954	0,571	−5,177	−2,697	0,711	−3,795	0,748	0,185	4,035
DE	−2,567	1,269	−2,022	0,738	1,270	0,581	0,961	0,020	49,141
EL	−1,184	0,087	−13,568	−0,680	0,045	−14,979	0,431	0,205	2,097
HU	−1,977	0,508	−3,896	−1,110	0,304	−3,653	0,709	0,165	4,290
IE	−2,817	5,391	−0,522	−0,523	0,582	−0,898	0,980	0,066	14,977
IT	−2,360	0,126	−18,768	−1,521	0,149	−10,193	0,686	0,165	4,165
LU	−2,053	0,063	−32,483	−1,760	0,075	−23,359	−0,033	0,184	−0,178
NL	−4,219	0,134	−31,500	−2,963	0,122	−24,254	0,358	0,177	2,030
PT	−1,437	0,145	−9,879	−1,094	0,109	−10,010	0,548	0,158	3,472
ES	−1,948	0,687	−2,837	−1,216	0,760	−1,601	0,849	0,191	4,451
UK	0,123	2,283	0,054	0,044	0,766	0,057	1,040	0,040	26,168

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