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Table 8 The fits of multivariate trend model of the load factor of EM and EF flights

From: Spectral density estimation of European airlines load factors for Europe-Middle East and Europe-Far East flights

Parameter Estimates Components of f i (t; β i ) Estimates Std. Error t-cal Approx. Significance Model Std. Error Forecasting of Load factor of 2014 (in %)
Month Expected LB UB
Rho (AR1-EM)   0.47065 0.05403 8.7109 0.00000 3.10843 Jan 68.48439 62.36979 74.59898
Time function Coefficients t 0.04047 0.00440 9.2040 0.00000 Feb 70.82609 64.7115 76.94069
Sin(ω 2 t) −0.89069 0.23959 −3.7176 0.00025 Mar 73.48739 67.37279 79.60199
Sin(ω 3 t) 1.56918 0.30565 5.1340 0.00000 Apr 75.61921 69.50461 81.7338
Sin(ω 6 t) −2.44483 0.41552 −5.8838 0.00000 May 71.20958 65.09498 77.32418
Cos(ω 1 t) 0.66278 0.12738 5.2032 0.00000 Jun 73.23854 67.12394 79.35313
Cos(ω 2 t) 2.19048 0.23959 9.1428 0.00000 Jul 78.23464 72.12004 84.34924
Cos(ω 3 t) −2.05430 0.30510 −6.7332 0.00000 Aug 82.73358 76.61898 88.84817
Cos(ω 6 t) −3.04910 0.41357 −7.3726 0.00000 Sep 76.83852 70.72392 82.95312
Constant of EM Flights 62.35790 0.70356 88.6320 0.00000 Oct 72.66656 66.55196 78.78115
  Nov 70.39743 64.28283 76.51203
Dec 71.76413 65.64953 77.87873
Rho (AR1-EF)   0.5381 0.0507 10.603 0.0000 2.278 Jan 81.15884 76.67778 85.63989
Time function Coefficients t 0.0250 0.0074 3.3849 0.0008 Feb 84.1656 79.68454 88.64665
ln(t) 2.4256 0.5892 4.1171 0.0001 Mar 84.06061 79.57955 88.54167
Sin(ω 2 t) −0.8707 0.1710 −5.093 0.0000 Apr 80.45579 75.97473 84.93685
Sin(ω 3 t) 2.1558 0.2242 9.6166 0.0000 May 78.56003 74.07897 83.04109
Sin(ω 6 t) −2.4322 0.3252 −7.480 0.0000 Jun 81.36409 76.88303 85.84515
Cos(ω 2 t) −0.3753 0.1709 −2.196 0.0289 Jul 85.53465 81.05359 90.01571
Cos(ω 3 t) −2.1171 0.2235 −9.471 0.0000 Aug 87.12244 82.64139 91.6035
Cos(ω 4 t) 0.7073 0.2664 2.6552 0.0084 Sep 86.38518 81.90413 90.86624
Constant of EF Flights 62.3631 1.9255 32.387 0.0000 Oct 84.91345 80.4324 89.39451
where: t = 12 (Current year-1991) + Current month and \( {\omega}_l=\frac{\pi }{l},l=1,2,3\dots .. \) are periods Nov 82.93511 78.45405 87.41616
Dec 81.52201 77.04095 86.00306