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Table 8 The fits of multivariate trend model of the load factor of EM and EF flights
Parameter Estimates | Components of f i (t; β i ) | Estimates | Std. Error | t-cal | Approx. Significance | Model Std. Error | Forecasting of Load factor of 2014 (in %) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month | Expected | LB | UB | |||||||
Rho (AR1-EM) | 0.47065 | 0.05403 | 8.7109 | 0.00000 | 3.10843 | Jan | 68.48439 | 62.36979 | 74.59898 | |
Time function Coefficients | t | 0.04047 | 0.00440 | 9.2040 | 0.00000 | Feb | 70.82609 | 64.7115 | 76.94069 | |
Sin(ω 2 t) | −0.89069 | 0.23959 | −3.7176 | 0.00025 | Mar | 73.48739 | 67.37279 | 79.60199 | ||
Sin(ω 3 t) | 1.56918 | 0.30565 | 5.1340 | 0.00000 | Apr | 75.61921 | 69.50461 | 81.7338 | ||
Sin(ω 6 t) | −2.44483 | 0.41552 | −5.8838 | 0.00000 | May | 71.20958 | 65.09498 | 77.32418 | ||
Cos(ω 1 t) | 0.66278 | 0.12738 | 5.2032 | 0.00000 | Jun | 73.23854 | 67.12394 | 79.35313 | ||
Cos(ω 2 t) | 2.19048 | 0.23959 | 9.1428 | 0.00000 | Jul | 78.23464 | 72.12004 | 84.34924 | ||
Cos(ω 3 t) | −2.05430 | 0.30510 | −6.7332 | 0.00000 | Aug | 82.73358 | 76.61898 | 88.84817 | ||
Cos(ω 6 t) | −3.04910 | 0.41357 | −7.3726 | 0.00000 | Sep | 76.83852 | 70.72392 | 82.95312 | ||
Constant of EM Flights | 62.35790 | 0.70356 | 88.6320 | 0.00000 | Oct | 72.66656 | 66.55196 | 78.78115 | ||
Nov | 70.39743 | 64.28283 | 76.51203 | |||||||
Dec | 71.76413 | 65.64953 | 77.87873 | |||||||
Rho (AR1-EF) | 0.5381 | 0.0507 | 10.603 | 0.0000 | 2.278 | Jan | 81.15884 | 76.67778 | 85.63989 | |
Time function Coefficients | t | 0.0250 | 0.0074 | 3.3849 | 0.0008 | Feb | 84.1656 | 79.68454 | 88.64665 | |
ln(t) | 2.4256 | 0.5892 | 4.1171 | 0.0001 | Mar | 84.06061 | 79.57955 | 88.54167 | ||
Sin(ω 2 t) | −0.8707 | 0.1710 | −5.093 | 0.0000 | Apr | 80.45579 | 75.97473 | 84.93685 | ||
Sin(ω 3 t) | 2.1558 | 0.2242 | 9.6166 | 0.0000 | May | 78.56003 | 74.07897 | 83.04109 | ||
Sin(ω 6 t) | −2.4322 | 0.3252 | −7.480 | 0.0000 | Jun | 81.36409 | 76.88303 | 85.84515 | ||
Cos(ω 2 t) | −0.3753 | 0.1709 | −2.196 | 0.0289 | Jul | 85.53465 | 81.05359 | 90.01571 | ||
Cos(ω 3 t) | −2.1171 | 0.2235 | −9.471 | 0.0000 | Aug | 87.12244 | 82.64139 | 91.6035 | ||
Cos(ω 4 t) | 0.7073 | 0.2664 | 2.6552 | 0.0084 | Sep | 86.38518 | 81.90413 | 90.86624 | ||
Constant of EF Flights | 62.3631 | 1.9255 | 32.387 | 0.0000 | Oct | 84.91345 | 80.4324 | 89.39451 | ||
where: t = 12 (Current year-1991) + Current month and \( {\omega}_l=\frac{\pi }{l},l=1,2,3\dots .. \) are periods | Nov | 82.93511 | 78.45405 | 87.41616 | ||||||
Dec | 81.52201 | 77.04095 | 86.00306 | |||||||