An Open Access Journal
Table 1 Summary of factors considered / ignored in forecasting procedure
Uncertainty/Relevance | Low uncertainty | High uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
Low relevance | Ignored A. General trends B. Transport trends Liberalisation of transport market C. Rail trends | Ignored e.g. Carbon intensity, non EU GDP growth, oil dependency, … |
High relevance | Embedded in REF A. General trends Population (ageing, household structure) Urbanization Motorization B. Transport trends Liberalisation of transport market C. Rail trends | Embedded in both REF and White Paper Sc A. General trends Oil prices Economic growth (GDP, GPD per capita) B. Transport trends Technological breakthroughs C. Rail trends |