Fig. 5
From: On the variation of the crash risk with the total number of bicyclists
a Development of normalized annual bicycle volumes (official estimate), crash numbers, and risk in Berlin (the reference for the normalization is the year 2001, where the number of accidents was 5332); b Normalized annual bike volumes versus the observed and predicted annual crash numbers. Predictions are obtained from a ML fit for (2) without memory, i.e., τ=1, and with τ=5 years memory, which yielded the maximal likelyhood among τ=1,…,10; c Normalized annual bike volumes versus the residuals for the predictions shown in (b)