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Table 2 Methods for analyzing modal shift in freight transport and its CO2 gains

From: A shift-share based tool for assessing the contribution of a modal shift to the decarbonisation of inland freight transport

Method and approach Study Transport modes Model name and/or characteristics Application modal shift analysis Remarks
Choice modellinga (micro) Regmi and Hanaoka [37] Road and rail (diesel only) Binary mode choice model based on SP survey Corridor between Loas and Thailand, 43 freight forwarders. A 30.5% reduction in CO2 emissions due to a shift from 100% road to 56.8% road.
Buhler and Jochem [5] Road and rail Binary mode choice model based on RP survey 498 freight forwarders in Germany A drop of 1% (if a road user charge applies) to 4% (due to increased rail speed) in CO2 emissions.
(Semi-) LCA (macro) Kim and van Wee [21] Road, rail (diesel and electricity), Short Sea Shipping (SSS) Explicitly includes emissions from electricity production Corridor between Western and Eastern Europe Comparison of CO2 emissions for 7 unimodal/intermodal scenarios.
Kim and van Wee [22] Road and rail (diesel and electricity) Explicitly includes emissions from electricity production No specific area Comparison of CO2 emissions for 5 unimodal/intermodal scenarios.
Nocera and Cavallaro [32] Road and rail Well-to-wheel principle Transalpine corridors Comparison of CO2 emissions in 2030 for 3 scenarios compared to baseline 2030.
Strategic freight transport network models (macro) Nelldal and Andersson [30] Road and rail TRANSTOOLSb, strategic transport network model European Union Reduction of 20% of EU transport GHG emissions over land by 2050 compared to baseline.
Jonkeren et al. [17] Road, rail, Inland Waterways (IWW) NODUS, GIS-based transport network model based on virtual network concept The Rhine freight corridor Increase of 1.1% of annual CO2 emissions due to modal shift from IWW to road.
Mostert et al. [28]. Road, rail, IWW Intermodal allocation model Freight flows within, from and to Belgium (NUTS 3 level) Study focuses on effect of modal shift on pollution rather than CO2.
Asuncion et al. [2] Road, rail, SSS GIS-based optimization model: New Zealand Intermodal Freight Network Auckland-Wellington
Auckland – Christchurch
Significant CO2 emission savings due to a modal shift
de Bok et al. [3] Road, rail, IWW BASGOED, strategic transport network model Netherlands Analyses effect of implementing CO2 pricing on modal split.
Macharis et al. [24] Road, rail, IWW LAMBIT model, GIS-based model for location analysis of Belgian intermodal terminals Belgium Analyses effect of internalization of external costs, among which CO2 on market area of intermodal transport.
Tavasszy and Meieren [40] Road, rail, IWW TRANSTOOLS, strategic transport network model EU Modal shift can cover 8% of the total reduction potential for CO2.
Tsamboulas et al. [42] Road, rail, IWW, SSS Macro-scan tool Lerida – Karlsruhe
Halkida – Ingolstadt
One of the applications is internalization of CO2 costs.
Zhang and Pel [43] Road, rail, IWW (intermodal and synchromodal) SynchroMO model Rotterdam hinterland (Rhine river corridor until Duisburg. Only container flows and for short-term analysis (24 h)
Decomposition analysis (macro) Notteboom and Coeck [33] Road, rail, IWW Shift-share analysis Belgian freight transport market No effect on CO2 calculated in this report. Method used for analysis of change in intermodal competition.
Other methods (mixed micro, macro) Islam and Zunder [15] Road, rail Case studies based on interviews, questionnaires, company data and strategic transport network models. 1) Dourges – Mataro
2) Mechelen – Zeebrugge
3) Amiens – Mechelen – Euskirchen
4) Rotterdam – Busto Arsizio
2500 t CO2 saved per year in Corridors 1 and 2 jointly in 2008/2009.
  1. aWe refer to Arencibia et al. [1] for important considerations in choice modelling for freight transport
  2. bIslam et al. [14] provide a detailed description of the TRANSTOOLS modelling tool