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Table 1 Main survey 1: multiple choice questions (MCQs). (% = expert responses)
From: Internal versus external European air market realities: the competitive divide
Where is the global airline industry headed? | |||
MCQ5 | What will likely be the big news stories for the global airline industry over the coming decade and beyond? | ||
1st | Environmental concerns/issues | 68% | |
2nd | Airport congestion (including slot allocation) | 58% | |
3rd | The continued rise of the major Gulf carriers | 55% | |
4th | Infrastructure constraints | 52% | |
5th | The rise of the Chinese airline industry | 41% | |
Oil price | |||
MCQ6 | Are national flag carriers increasingly becoming a part of history, or are they here to stay? | ||
a. | They are definitely disappearing from the global industry | 11% | |
b. | Most of them are here to stay | 43% | |
c. | Some of them will survive, but most will likely disappear in the next 10 years or so | 45% | |
d. | Other | 1% | |
MCQ7 | Which of the following political/economic positions best captures your overall view of the global airline industry and its IDEAL regulatory future? | ||
a. | Significant regulation is required because most governments need to closely regulate the airline industry as it is crucial to national economic development and growth | 13% | |
b. | Some regulation of air markets will always be needed, however, this reality can (and should) coexist with varying levels of liberalisation heading forward | 51% | |
c. | The industry is imperfect and always will be. It is how it is. Likewise, change will almost always be slow and incremental, with significant international liberalisation only occurring on a limited basis (with the exception of the EU) | 15% | |
d. | The free market should be the basis for most (if not all) air markets around the world, with little to no national interference | 21% | |
MCQ8 | Globally, at what rate is international air market liberalisation currently progressing at? | ||
a. | Too slow | 39% | |
b. | About right | 46% | |
c. | Too fast | 9% | |
d. | No opinion | 6% | |
MCQ9 | Will national sovereignty have less impact on the development of the global airline industry in the foreseeable future? | ||
a. | Unlikely, as the nationality-based bilateral system of air service agreements (ASAs), along with national restrictions on ownership and control, will continue to remain strong | 19% | |
b. | Likely, as multilateral ASAs and open skies agreements are progressively taking hold around much of the world | 39% | |
c. | Its impact will vary and developments will be mixed | 42% | |
MCQ10 | Is the European Union (EU) single air market a prime example of the international liberalisation that will happen elsewhere around the world in the foreseeable future? | ||
a. | Definitely an example of what is coming for the global airline industry | 3% | |
b. | A prime example, but with slow, patchy and uneven progress around the world | 59% | |
c. | The EU has followed a mostly unique path to liberalisation, and is unlikely to provide meaningful insights into the future of the industry elsewhere | 17% | |
d. | The EU single air market is now actually more a reflection of the US domestic market, than a prime example applicable for other countries and/or regions | 21% | |
MCQ11 | Which of the following international regions do you think is most likely to form a regional air bloc (single air market) with full cabotage rights, and no internal restrictions on ownership and control, within the next 10 years or so? | ||
1st | EU with surrounding countries | 46% | |
2nd | Australia/New Zealand with surrounding countries | 44% | |
3rd | ASEAN countries | 40% | |
4th | North Atlantic (US & EU) | 25% | |
The big three global airline alliances - Star, SkyTeam & oneworld | |||
MCQ12 | Are the big three global airline alliances - Star, SkyTeam & oneworld - a permanent feature of the industry? How would you characterise their future prospects? | ||
a. | They will be around for a long time to come | 43% | |
b. | They are facing the real prospect of extinction | 9% | |
c. | Not all three will survive, but two might | 25% | |
d. | Four or more big global alliances are likely to exist in the foreseeable future | 20% | |
e. | Other | 3% | |
MCQ13 | How would you best describe the main rationale for the global airline alliances? | ||
a. | Substitutes for full mergers (given regulatory barriers) | 14% | |
b. | A cost effective way to achieve global geographic reach and coverage | 40% | |
c. | A cheaper option to merging that also achieves economies of scale, scope and density benefits | 28% | |
d. | An effective mechanism for turning competitors into partners | 18% | |
MCQ14 | Are bilateral alliances, including agreements between competing alliance members, weakening the major global alliances? | ||
a. | Yes, they are weakening the very rationale for the global alliances | 23% | |
b. | No, they are just a reflection of the pragmatic nature of the industry | 36% | |
c. | Somewhat, depending on the exact bilateral alliance being considered | 41% | |
The North Atlantic and Asian regions | |||
MCQ15 | How likely do you think it is that the US and EU will create a single North Atlantic air market in the foreseeable future? | ||
a. | Zero chance | 6% | |
b. | Unlikely | 44% | |
c. | 50/50 | 34% | |
d. | Likely | 13% | |
e. | Almost certain | 3% | |
MCQ16 | What would be the most significant consequences of such a single North Atlantic marketplace? | ||
a. | Flag carriers would soon disappear | 9% | |
b. | Major US carriers would merge with major EU flag carriers | 26% | |
c. | US airlines would develop a significant presence within the EU | 25% | |
d. | EU airlines would operate a substantial number of services within the US | 24% | |
e. | Single North Atlantic airline brands would replace national brands | 12% | |
f. | Other | 4% | |
MCQ17 | What role do you think the Asian region will play in shaping the global airline industry over the next decade and beyond? | ||
a. | The twenty-first century will be the Asian century and the airline industry will be a big part of this | 39% | |
b. | Asia is losing ground to the Middle East and a resurgent Europe and US | 13% | |
c. | Asia will follow the lead from elsewhere, rather than drive or greatly influence developments throughout the global industry | 23% | |
d. | The real story for the global industry in the region is China, elsewhere developments will be mixed | 25% | |
MCQ18 | Will open skies agreements and increasing liberalisation take hold in the Asian region in the foreseeable future? | ||
a. | No, the Asian region is too politically fragmented | 30% | |
b. | Yes, it is only a matter of time | 31% | |
c. | Smaller intra-regional single air markets within Asia are more likely | 39% | |
MCQ19 | The rise of China is a much discussed and debated contemporary issue. What impact will a bigger and stronger China have on the global airline industry? | ||
a. | Massive and far-reaching | 17% | |
b. | The growth story will be significant, but profits will be as elusive as ever | 48.5% | |
c. | Moderate, but mostly a domestic story with less international impacts being felt | 28.5% | |
d. | Limited, as China is likely to play catch-up to other major global regions and industry players for some time to come | 6% | |
Emerging Markets | |||
MCQ20 | What role and impact do you think that India will have on the global airline industry over the next decade or so? | ||
a. | Very little; India faces too many challenges that need addressing | 56% | |
b. | A major role and impact is likely in the foreseeable future as the country continues to grow economically | 11% | |
c. | The impact will be significant, but not as significant as China | 33% | |
MCQ21 | How significant do you think the three major Gulf carriers (Emirates, Etihad & Qatar) are to the global airline industry? | ||
a. | The most significant players in the global airline industry today, and growing more so | 29% | |
b. | Significant, but just one of a number of key industry stories now and into the foreseeable future | 61% | |
c. | Not as significant as they would have the industry believe | 10% | |
MCQ22 | As you scan the world and the global airline industry, what countries and/or regions do you think will rise to feature more prominently throughout the industry in the coming decade and beyond? | ||
1st | China | 80% | |
2nd | Asia | 50% | |
3rd | India | 34% | |
4th | Brazil | 29% | |
5th | Indonesia | 26% | |
6th | Africa | 17% | |
7th | North Atlantic | 13% | |
Iran was the only country or region added to ‘other’ here. | 1.4% | ||