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Table 2 Main survey 2: 27 forecasts

From: Internal versus external European air market realities: the competitive divide

Forecast

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Consensus1

Mean2

F1

It is vitally important that the global airline industry develop a comprehensive response to climate change in the foreseeable future.

9%

18%

73%

 

3.85

F2

The global airline industry will develop a comprehensive response to climate change and as a result substantially reduce its carbon emissions within the next 10 years or so.

29%

18%

53%

 

3.32

F3

Recent attempts by the EU to include aviation in its emissions trading scheme (ETS), although unpopular with many airlines, is a likely future model of how to effectively deal with global airline industry emissions.

26.5%

23.5%

49%

 

3.29

F4

Even if liberalisation increases around the world over the next decade, indirect regulations like airport congestion and other infrastructure constraints will moderate or limit any potential benefits.

12%

12%

76%

76%

3.74

F5

Re-regulation is likely to slow efforts towards greater liberalisation for much of the global airline industry over the next decade or so.

47%

26%

27%

 

2.82

F6

Most international airlines have not responded effectively to historically and persistently high oil prices, and are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.

38%

27%

35%

 

2.97

F7

The global airline industry would have higher levels of overall future profitability if more consistently underperforming and loss making airlines were allowed to fail and exit the industry.

15%

9%

76%

76%

3.94

F8

Profitability will be a key measure of global airline industry progress and development over the next 10 years or so.

3%

15%

82%

82%

4.03

F9

Bilateralism will still be a significant force and influence for the global airline industry into the foreseeable future.

6%

9%

85%

85%

3.88

F10

The global airline industry is not well suited to free market principles now, or into the future.

35%

24%

41%

 

3.06

F11

In a massive and highly complex system like the global airline industry, the EU can provide interesting insights into its likely future, but beyond that, its power and influence to shape the industry’s future development is limited.

3%

17%

74%

 

3.74

F12

Regional air blocs (single air markets) similar to that currently represented by the EU, will become the dominant market structure for the global airline industry in the next 10 years or so.

23%

15%

62%

 

3.44

F13

Full (or close to it) international air market liberalisation is inevitable; the only area of real debate concerns how long it will take to achieve.

41%

12%

47%

 

3.06

F14

Greater or limited future international liberalisation will not substantially impact the future development of the major global alliances.

35%

18%

47%

 

3.12

F15

Buying substantial equity stakes (10% or higher) in other airlines is becoming a more effective way for individual airlines to build strong and lasting partnerships than simply codesharing, global alliance membership or strategic agreements.

17%

15%

68%

 

3.5

F16

Strategic partnering outside global alliance structures will become a significant feature of the airline industry over the next 10 years or so.

3%

12%

85%

85%

4.01

F17

How would you characterise the likely future strategic position of each of the three big global alliances in 10 years or so from now?

Weaker

Unchanged

Stronger

a

Star Alliance

12%

26%

62%

b

SkyTeam

30%

35%

35%

c

oneworld

29%

18%

53%

Forecast

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Consensus

Mean

F18

US foreign airline ownership and control restrictions will not be lifted or eased any time soon.

9%

18%

73%

 

3.88

F19

EU flag carriers, particularly Air France, British Airways and Lufthansa, will still be the dominant European airlines for long-haul flights 10 years or so from now.

12%

15%

73%

 

3.82

F20

Asian countries like China, with actual or potential domestic air markets of significant size, are highly unlikely to grant unrestricted (open) market access to foreign airlines into the foreseeable future (and mostly, if not exclusively, on a bilateral basis only).

6%

6%

88%

88%

4.12

F21

The big three Chinese carriers will become global airlines on par with major international competitors within the next 10 years or so.

Unlikely

Neutral

Likely

Consensus

Mean

a

Air China

15%

15%

70%

 

3.64

b

China Southern

12%

27%

61%

 

3.64

c

China Eastern

16%

28%

56%

 

3.47

Forecast

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Consensus

Mean

F22

China’s airline industry will rival those of the US and EU within the next 10 years or so.

9%

20%

71%

 

3.62

F23

It is currently not possible to accurately predict the nature and extent of India’s impact on the global airline industry over the next 10 years or so.

21%

6%

73%

 

3.73

F24

Within the next 10 years or so, the strategy of attempting to restrict access to the major Gulf carriers will have mostly (if not totally) failed.

26%

21%

53%

 

3.35

F25

The three major Gulf carriers will not be able to fully realise their global ambitions without significant further international liberalisation.

15%

17%

68%

 

3.59

F26

In 10 years or so, which of the following alliance options is most likely to be the case for each of the major Gulf carriers?

Star

SkyTeam

oneworld

Unaligned

New alliance

a

Emirates Airline

20%

3%

23%

47%

7%

b

Etihad Airways

24%

17%

10%

35%

14%

c

Qatar Airways

10%

16%

58%

13%

3%

Forecast

Disagree

Neutral

Agree

Consensus

Mean

F27

The global airline industry has a lot more ‘global’ yet to come in terms of more regions and countries being drawn into its architecture.

3%

20%

77%

77%

3.82

  1. Notes
  2. 1Consensus being set at 75% or higher was used as a tool to deepen insights and not as a prescriptive one dimensional metric
  3. 2The agreement mean was calculated by assigning 1 to strongly disagree through to 5 for strongly agree. In this context, disagree and agree values in the above table include strongly for each, with the mean indicting the strength of that disagreement/agreement out of 5