An Open Access Journal
From: Internal versus external European air market realities: the competitive divide
Forecast | Disagree | Neutral | Agree | Consensus1 | Mean2 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F1 | It is vitally important that the global airline industry develop a comprehensive response to climate change in the foreseeable future. | 9% | 18% | 73% | 3.85 | ||
F2 | The global airline industry will develop a comprehensive response to climate change and as a result substantially reduce its carbon emissions within the next 10 years or so. | 29% | 18% | 53% | 3.32 | ||
F3 | Recent attempts by the EU to include aviation in its emissions trading scheme (ETS), although unpopular with many airlines, is a likely future model of how to effectively deal with global airline industry emissions. | 26.5% | 23.5% | 49% | 3.29 | ||
F4 | Even if liberalisation increases around the world over the next decade, indirect regulations like airport congestion and other infrastructure constraints will moderate or limit any potential benefits. | 12% | 12% | 76% | 76% | 3.74 | |
F5 | Re-regulation is likely to slow efforts towards greater liberalisation for much of the global airline industry over the next decade or so. | 47% | 26% | 27% | 2.82 | ||
F6 | Most international airlines have not responded effectively to historically and persistently high oil prices, and are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. | 38% | 27% | 35% | 2.97 | ||
F7 | The global airline industry would have higher levels of overall future profitability if more consistently underperforming and loss making airlines were allowed to fail and exit the industry. | 15% | 9% | 76% | 76% | 3.94 | |
F8 | Profitability will be a key measure of global airline industry progress and development over the next 10 years or so. | 3% | 15% | 82% | 82% | 4.03 | |
F9 | Bilateralism will still be a significant force and influence for the global airline industry into the foreseeable future. | 6% | 9% | 85% | 85% | 3.88 | |
F10 | The global airline industry is not well suited to free market principles now, or into the future. | 35% | 24% | 41% | 3.06 | ||
F11 | In a massive and highly complex system like the global airline industry, the EU can provide interesting insights into its likely future, but beyond that, its power and influence to shape the industry’s future development is limited. | 3% | 17% | 74% | 3.74 | ||
F12 | Regional air blocs (single air markets) similar to that currently represented by the EU, will become the dominant market structure for the global airline industry in the next 10 years or so. | 23% | 15% | 62% | 3.44 | ||
F13 | Full (or close to it) international air market liberalisation is inevitable; the only area of real debate concerns how long it will take to achieve. | 41% | 12% | 47% | 3.06 | ||
F14 | Greater or limited future international liberalisation will not substantially impact the future development of the major global alliances. | 35% | 18% | 47% | 3.12 | ||
F15 | Buying substantial equity stakes (10% or higher) in other airlines is becoming a more effective way for individual airlines to build strong and lasting partnerships than simply codesharing, global alliance membership or strategic agreements. | 17% | 15% | 68% | 3.5 | ||
F16 | Strategic partnering outside global alliance structures will become a significant feature of the airline industry over the next 10 years or so. | 3% | 12% | 85% | 85% | 4.01 | |
F17 | How would you characterise the likely future strategic position of each of the three big global alliances in 10 years or so from now? | Weaker | Unchanged | Stronger | |||
a | Star Alliance | 12% | 26% | 62% | |||
b | SkyTeam | 30% | 35% | 35% | |||
c | oneworld | 29% | 18% | 53% | |||
Forecast | Disagree | Neutral | Agree | Consensus | Mean | ||
F18 | US foreign airline ownership and control restrictions will not be lifted or eased any time soon. | 9% | 18% | 73% | 3.88 | ||
F19 | EU flag carriers, particularly Air France, British Airways and Lufthansa, will still be the dominant European airlines for long-haul flights 10 years or so from now. | 12% | 15% | 73% | 3.82 | ||
F20 | Asian countries like China, with actual or potential domestic air markets of significant size, are highly unlikely to grant unrestricted (open) market access to foreign airlines into the foreseeable future (and mostly, if not exclusively, on a bilateral basis only). | 6% | 6% | 88% | 88% | 4.12 | |
F21 | The big three Chinese carriers will become global airlines on par with major international competitors within the next 10 years or so. | Unlikely | Neutral | Likely | Consensus | Mean | |
a | Air China | 15% | 15% | 70% | 3.64 | ||
b | China Southern | 12% | 27% | 61% | 3.64 | ||
c | China Eastern | 16% | 28% | 56% | 3.47 | ||
Forecast | Disagree | Neutral | Agree | Consensus | Mean | ||
F22 | China’s airline industry will rival those of the US and EU within the next 10 years or so. | 9% | 20% | 71% | 3.62 | ||
F23 | It is currently not possible to accurately predict the nature and extent of India’s impact on the global airline industry over the next 10 years or so. | 21% | 6% | 73% | 3.73 | ||
F24 | Within the next 10 years or so, the strategy of attempting to restrict access to the major Gulf carriers will have mostly (if not totally) failed. | 26% | 21% | 53% | 3.35 | ||
F25 | The three major Gulf carriers will not be able to fully realise their global ambitions without significant further international liberalisation. | 15% | 17% | 68% | 3.59 | ||
F26 | In 10 years or so, which of the following alliance options is most likely to be the case for each of the major Gulf carriers? | Star | SkyTeam | oneworld | Unaligned | New alliance | |
a | Emirates Airline | 20% | 3% | 23% | 47% | 7% | |
b | Etihad Airways | 24% | 17% | 10% | 35% | 14% | |
c | Qatar Airways | 10% | 16% | 58% | 13% | 3% | |
Forecast | Disagree | Neutral | Agree | Consensus | Mean | ||
F27 | The global airline industry has a lot more ‘global’ yet to come in terms of more regions and countries being drawn into its architecture. | 3% | 20% | 77% | 77% | 3.82 |