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Table 3 Comparison of visions and scenarios per key element

From: Developing disruptive mobility scenarios for rural areas. Participatory mobility scenario building in a Belgian village for the year 2050

Key elements

Vision

Scenario 1

No more private cars

Scenario 2

Delayed implementation of bike lanes

Scenario 3

Unreliable energy grid

Scenario 4

Mandatory teleworking

Mode of transport

Mainly bicycles for internal trips

Mainly private (flying, emission free) cars and buses for external trips

Mainly bicycles for internal trips

Public transport for external trips

Autonomous shared cars for external trips

Cars are the main mode of transport

There are no cyclists or pedestrians

No use of public transport

More shared mobility (carpooling)

No electric cars

Fewer cars

Bicycles are used for everything

Fewer cars

Mainly bicycles or walking for internal trips

Trip frequency

Increase in no. of trips

Decrease in no. of trips

Increase in no. of trips

Decrease in no. of trips

No decrease in no. of trips, but shift in type of trips

Trips more evenly distributed during the day

Shopping habits

More local businesses

More e-commerce

More e-commerce

N/A

Local food production; more self-sufficiency

More local shops

More e-commerce

Deliveries

Centralized pick-up points

Home deliveries of goods

N/A

No deliveries because no e-commerce

Home deliveries of goods

Village surroundings

Car-free zones and restricted heavy truck access

More playground

More social activities

N/A

Increased commuter traffic around the village

Fewer citizens

Fewer visitors coming from outside

Increased social activities; more of a ‘village’ feeling