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Table 4 Selected wild cards developed by experts and citizens
Category | Citizen/expert | Description of wild card | Level of imaginability (1- very unimaginable, 5- very imaginable) |
|---|---|---|---|
Political | Expert | Private vehicles are banned Radical political parties view private vehicles as a source of inequality and ban them. Public transport is the only transport mode available | 2,46 |
Bike lanes are delayed A car-obsessed governmental majority delays the implementation of bike lanes | 2,7 | ||
The end of Belgium Belgium dissolves and Flanders becomes independent. A wall is built between Brussels and Flanders, affecting commuting | 2,29 | ||
The EU collapses Ambitions for climate change move to the background as more local problems need solving | 2,79 | ||
Building new houses in rural areas is no longer allowed | 3,38 | ||
Citizen | Mobility between Oetingen and Brussels becomes much easier The increased attractiveness of Oetingen poses a threat to the village atmosphere | 3,96 | |
One-way streets All of traffic in Oetingen becomes one-way for cars | 3,71 | ||
Internal combustion engines are banned | 4,33 | ||
Economic | Expert | Decrease in funds for road maintenance due to inflation Massive inflation of the euro leads to insufficient funds for road maintenance | 3,17 |
Economic crisis The village economy collapses, leading to high unemployment, closed shops, and citizens leaving | 3,67 | ||
An economic hub develops close to the village This increases the attractiveness of the village and causes an influx of younger, non-Belgian people | 3,67 | ||
A railway line is built through the village | 3,04 | ||
Universal basic income Universal basic income makes paid labour less necessary, thereby diminishes commuting needs | 3,00 | ||
Increasing energy prices Oil becomes scarce and electricity prices are impacted by the closure of nuclear power plants | 4,38 | ||
Increased peri-urbanisation Economic activity is located outside city centres in larger industrial zones, making it necessary to leave the city to shop | 3,83 | ||
Public transport becomes less reliable and more expensive Financial difficulties at the public transport operator. The difficulties lead to a decrease in bus lines and an increase of ticket prices | 3,21 | ||
The public transport market is opened to competition | 4,21 | ||
Explosion of the gig-economy Market liberalism results in more freelancing jobs. This causes everyone to have completely different mobility patterns | 4,00 | ||
Explosion of home deliveries Deliveries lead to unsustainable transport. When demand is too high, some areas will not get home deliveries | 3,67 | ||
Retirement is impossible Nobody can retire anymore because of the economic aftermath of COVID-19. New types of jobs will be introduced for the elderly, and the relationship with work changes for everyone | 2,71 | ||
One economic crisis per decade Three more economic crises between now and 2050 (every 10Â years), with their consequences for transport demand | 4,04 | ||
Bitcoin millionaires buy up houses Rise of the bitcoin economy upturns the economic system and changes poor-rich relationships. People made rich from bitcoin start buying up houses in Oetingen | 2,50 | ||
Social | Expert | Civil unrest drastically reduces transport demand Civil chaos in all of Belgium makes people avoid traveling at all costs. People are afraid to use public transport or shared mobility. They are also afraid to walk or cycle in public spaces. Only when really necessary do people travel, in private vehicles | 2,46 |
Population decreases due to an increase in heat waves, leading to low population density in the village | 3,00 | ||
Health issues caused by teleworking increases pressure on health care Increasing health issues related to teleworking, leaving people unable to bike. There is therefore an increasing need to get to hospitals for medical check-ups | 3,08 | ||
Urban exodus Increasing age and income gap, enhancing the rural and urban divide. Cities will become less sustainable and qualitative, leading to an exodus to the countryside | 3,54 | ||
Urban living becomes very expensive Cities become the only liveable places where proximity is still possible, so they become very expensive | 3,92 | ||
Increased housing mobility The elderly move around more and adapt their houses to their needs at a moment in time. People move out faster, so existing housing empties up for new families, but there generally is also a lower demand for traditional housing | 3,83 | ||
Collapse of the pension system The collapse of the pension system leads to increased poverty among the elderly, who cannot afford to travel and to house themselves | 3,83 | ||
Radiation fears cause exodus Growing fear about radiation emitted by the VUB photonics research centre in Oetingen results in people abandoning their houses | 1,67 | ||
Citizen | No more need for drivers' licenses because of autonomous vehicles | 3,46 | |
Teleworking replaces all office jobs | 4,25 | ||
Decreased social capital in the village and increasing individualisation from citizens Social activities in the village and social links between villagers are reduced due to less engagement from the next generations | 4,04 | ||
People live longer and more qualitative lives You're considered old after 85 and the future elderly are in better health than the 85 + today. People remain at home longer and do not go to nursing homes. This increases the need to make all public infrastructure accessible | 4,29 | ||
Technological | Expert | Virtual reality replaces real life The need for transportation is reduced drastically | 2,88 |
Power shortages due to increased electrification The grid cannot supply the demand | 3,50 | ||
Artificial intelligence solves all mobility problems | 2,25 | ||
Basic infrastructure is disrupted due to internet shutdowns caused by hackers or natural disasters | 3,63 | ||
Global shortages of raw materials for smart and connected applications | 4,08 | ||
Smart technologies are deemed unsafe due to hacks and weaponization | 3,63 | ||
Safety issues related to data as a commodity (like cameras, etc.) | 4,17 | ||
Home deliveries via underground tubes An underground tube transport system allows for home deliveries | 2,46 | ||
Endless and cheap energy supply Energy sources like fusion energy increase energy supply, thereby allowing for travelling without bad conscience | 2,75 | ||
Energy crisis results in mobility poverty Fossils fuels are depleted and the supply of energy from renewable sources doesn't meet the demand. This leads to increased mobility poverty due to an inability to travel as well as an increased reliance on public transport | 3,54 | ||
Oetingen becomes android-free Human-like robots (i.e., androids) are everywhere, but are increasingly hated by society. Oetingen declares itself an android-free zone, thereby becoming a walled-in community | 2,13 | ||
Citizen | Autonomous vehicles are parked outside the village | 3,63 | |
Home deliveries are only done via drones | 3,21 | ||
All bike parkings have charging infrastructure | 4,42 | ||
Environmental | Expert | The ground below Oetingen becomes unstable The instability destroys above ground infrastructure and makes it almost impossible to build above ground | 2,42 |
Destruction of the ozone layer People cannot walk outside without protective clothing | 2,54 | ||
Meteorites destroy Oetingen People live in shelters | 1,63 | ||
Walking and cycling impossible due to heat waves People only travel using airconditioned transport modes | 3,29 | ||
Extreme climate change Low temperatures in winter, high temperatures in summer | 4,00 | ||
Changed landscapes: energy production replaces food production The demand for energy is higher than the demand for food | 3,50 | ||
Expert & Citizen | The village is regularly under water due to flooding | 3,17 | |
Oetingen becomes a holiday destination due to warmer weather | 2,33 |