4.1 Case A: Rail service Råådalsbanan
Råådalsbanan in the northwestern parts of Scania serves a number of small towns and villages (population ranging from 500 to 2000) with connections to some of the larger towns in the region. Råådalsbanan used to be the main line from north to south in this part of Scania, but following the opening of a new railway in 2001 most of the through trips were relocated there. Råådalsbanan was retained as a rural railway, with hourly departures on weekdays, though with a few gaps, and every other hour on Saturdays and Sundays. Three new stations were opened in 2001, but these stations were excluded from the analysis to make sure that the effects of the new openings did not influence the results.
In June 2006, the gaps in the weekday timetable were filled so that the trains started to run on an unbroken hourly schedule from 6 a.m. to midnight. This meant an increase from 15 to 19 daily departures (+27%). The new departures were at 11 a.m., 2 p.m., 9 p.m., and 11 p.m. In other words, two new departures during the midday period and two new departures in the evening.
The sparser frequency on Saturdays and Sundays continued until December 2014, when the number of weekend departures was doubled, resulting in an hourly service from 8 a.m. to midnight on Saturdays and to 11 p.m. on Sundays.
The patronage development from 2002 to 2016 is shown in Fig. 2. As can be seen in the figure, the introduction of an all-day hourly service on weekdays in 2006 was followed by a notable increase in the weekday patronage. The patronage growth after one year was estimated to be 27%, which is on par with the frequency increase, and the growth continued before levelling off at roughly 40% after three to four years. The Saturday and Sunday patronage was relatively stable in this time span, without any signs of cross-effects from the increased frequency on weekdays. New trains were introduced in 2010, resulting in additional growth but to a smaller extent.
Further along on the timeline, the doubled frequency on weekends from 2014 to 2015 led to a roughly 50% increase in patronage on both Saturdays and Sundays. With only two observations after the weekend improvement, it is not possible to estimate the ramp-up parameters, but in contrast to the 2006 improvement, the increase after 2014 seems to have levelled off already after one year. This is confirmed by statistics for the years after 2016, indicating no further patronage increase, neither on Saturdays nor on Sundays. Also, the improved weekend service did not seem to have any notable effect on the weekday patronage.
A more detailed picture of the patronage growth following the 2006 improvement is presented in Fig. 3, showing the number of trips over the course of the day in 2005 and 2008. To facilitate comparison, the values have been averaged over a moving three-hour period. The most conspicuous increase is in the morning peak, where the number of trips increased by 42%, despite the unaltered frequency in that period. The increase in the afternoon peak is less prominent, and taken together the number of off-peak trips increased more than the number of trips during peak hours (+36% off-peak compared to +28% peak). However, trips during peak hours increased more in absolute numbers (+200 peak trips compared to +170 off-peak trips).
4.2 Case B: Rail service Österlenbanan
Österlenbanan is a railway between Ystad (pop. 20,000) and Simrishamn (pop. 6800), via Tomelilla (pop. 7200) and some smaller settlements en route, in the southeastern parts of Scania. The railway was electrified in 2001–2003, and after the reopening the service was operated with departures every two hours. Supplementary departures in the morning and in the afternoon meant that an hourly service was offered on weekdays 6–8 a.m. and 4–6 p.m.
The span of the hourly service was extended in January 2009 to 5–8 a.m. and 2–8 p.m., an increase from 12 to 15 daily departures (+25%). Two and a half years later, in August 2011, another five daily departures were added on weekdays (+33%), resulting in an hourly service from 5 a.m. to midnight. Simultaneously, the frequency on Saturdays and Sundays was doubled to be able to introduce an hourly service all days of the week (from 6 a.m. to midnight on Saturdays and from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Sundays).
Since the reopening in 2003, the trains on Österlenbanan have continued from Ystad towards the more densely populated western parts of the region. However, to avoid any influence from events in other parts of the network, trips passing through Ystad have been excluded from the analysis. Consequently, the number of trips in the analysis corresponds to the number of boarding passengers on eastbound trains, from Ystad to Simrishamn, and to the number of alighting passengers on westbound trains, from Simrishamn to Ystad.
The patronage development from 2004 to 2016 is shown in Fig. 4. The first extension of the hourly service in 2009 appears to have resulted in an increase in weekday patronage of approximately 16%.
The response to the introduction of the all-day hourly service in 2011 is more tangible. As in case A, the estimated patronage growth on weekdays exceeded the relative frequency increase already after the first year. The long-term effect was estimated to be 50%, most of which was attained after three to four years.
The growth was greater on Saturdays and Sundays, although it did not quite reach the corresponding increase in frequency in this case. The doubled frequency was estimated to result in a roughly 70% increase in patronage on Saturdays and an 85% increase on Sundays. In contrast to the patronage growth on weekdays, the weekend patronage seems to have grown faster but to have levelled off considerably already after one to two years.
Patronage growth at different times of the day is shown in Fig. 5. The extended span of the hourly service in 2009 seems to have primarily affected the afternoon peak, with a substantial patronage growth in the early afternoon. This is followed by a clear increase over all times of the day after the introduction of the all-day hourly service in 2011. The increase is particularly evident in the midday period, where the number of trips appears to have more than doubled from 2010 to 2013. The increase is less prominent during peak hours, but still substantial despite the unaltered frequency in those periods. The number of trips made during peak hours increased by 24% from 2010 to 2013, compared to a 75% increase during off-peak hours. In absolute numbers, the increase in off-peak trips was approximately twice as large as the increase in peak trips (+ 330 off-peak trips compared to +160 peak trips).
4.3 Case C: Coach services Kristianstad–Simrishamn/Ystad
The main public transport connections from north to south in the eastern parts of Scania are the coach services from Kristianstad (pop. 41,000) to Simrishamn (pop. 6800) and to Ystad (pop. 20,000). The services are called SkåneExpressen 3 and SkåneExpressen 4, but despite being branded as express services they have quite dense stopping patterns so that they also cover the rural settlements en route. The services were analysed together because their routes are parallel for about half the distance on the northern section.
Both services run on hourly schedules, supplemented during peak hours by a couple of additional bus services running parallel on the busiest sections. These bus services were also included in the analysis.
The hourly schedules used to only apply on weekdays but were extended to include Saturdays and Sundays in December 2014. This was a dramatic improvement, from 10 to 18 departures in each direction on Saturdays (+80%) and from 6 to 15 departures on Sundays (+150%). The improvement was made possible by integrating the timetables, thus enabling transfers instead of operating on parallel routes. The weekday schedules were also adjusted in December 2014, largely without any notable changes in the supply, except for some additional evening departures on the Ystad branch.
The patronage development from 2010 to 2019 is shown in Fig. 6. As can be seen in the figure, the weekday patronage was relatively stable across the entire time span. In contrast, a swift increase was seen on Saturdays and Sundays as a response to the service improvements at the end of 2014. The long-term effects were estimated to be a roughly 60% patronage increase on Saturdays and a 90% increase on Sundays. These levels were reached already after one to two years.
Changes in patronage over the course of the day on weekdays were also analysed. Except for a slight increase in evening patronage due to the additional evening departures, the results did not reveal any substantial changes that could be related to the improvements of the off-peak frequencies.
4.4 Case D: Bus service Trelleborg–Ystad
Bus service 190 operates along the southern Scanian coast between Trelleborg (pop. 31,000) and Ystad (pop. 20,000). The operations in their present form began in 2008, when a couple of previous services were combined to form a coherent route along the coast. Until 2015, the timetable was irregular, with a strong focus on the morning and afternoon peaks. During roughly two hours in the morning and two hours in the afternoon, there were at least two buses per hour in each direction. At other times of the day and during the weekends, the departures were much more sporadic.
In December 2015, a regular-interval timetable was introduced with at least hourly departures on weekdays from 5 a.m. to 8 p.m. At the same time, the departures during peak hours were redistributed so that half-hourly services could be offered 5–9 a.m. and 2–6 p.m. In effect, this meant that the span of the peak hour frequency was extended. All in all, the number of departures on weekdays increased from 19 to 27 (+42%), but the number of departures during peak hours was held constant, and the entire increase took place during the midday period and in the evening.
The hourly service was also extended to Saturdays, with an increase from 8 to 15 daily departures (+88%). On Sundays, however, the new schedule was limited to departures every other hour, which meant a less dramatic improvement, from 5 to 7 daily departures (+40%).
The patronage development from 2010 to 2019 is shown in Fig. 7. The data for this case suggested a relatively slow rate of convergence after the off-peak service improvements. The patronage growth exceeded the relative frequency increase on weekdays as well as on Saturdays and Sundays within three years or so and appears to have continued after that as well. The estimated long-term patronage growth effects were roughly 50% on weekdays, 100% on Saturdays, and 70% on Sundays.
Patronage growth at different times of the day is shown in Fig. 8. The largest increases occurred in the late morning and late afternoon in the transitions from peak hours to midday and evening hours, respectively. This is in line with the extended span of the peak hour frequency, resulting in less sharp peaks. The number of off-peak trips increased more than the number of trips during peak hours in relative terms (+39% off-peak compared to +28% peak). However, trips during peak hours increased more in absolute numbers (+140 peak trips compared to +120 off-peak trips).