The key theme transferability of the European regional single air market model of multilateral liberalization, whether via demonstration or persuasion, needs to be viewed in the overall context of international air market liberalization more widely. Results from this study clearly show that experts were divided on the inevitability of international liberalization covered on the main survey 2 in Forecast 13. This forecast postulated that: Full (or close to it) international air market liberalization is inevitable; the only area of real debate concerns how long it will take to achieve. Nearly half of experts agreed (47%), although tellingly close to this same number also disagreed (41%), with 12% opting for neutral. The results for Forecast 9 on the same survey covering bilateralism help to interpret these results; it argued: Bilateralism will still be a significant force and influence for the global airline industry into the foreseeable future. Eighty-five percent of experts agreed to Forecast 9, the second highest result on the survey (Asian region/Chinese future protectionism achieved 88% agreement on Forecast 20).
The results for Forecast 9 suggest that the bilateral system is not disappearing from the industry, nor is it likely to face substantial weakening in future. When the results for Forecast 20 are added (88% agreement), China is revealed as a major reason behind the continued relevance and longevity of the bilateral system. Forecast 20 argued that: Asian countries like China, with actual or potential domestic air markets of significant size, are highly unlikely to grant unrestricted (open) market access to foreign airlines into the foreseeable future (and mostly, if not exclusively, on a bilateral basis only). This forecast attained the highest level of consensus agreement across all 27 forecasts on the main survey 2; 88% (with strongly agree alone 29%). Only four experts (12%) here chose either neutral (6%) or disagree (6%), and none strongly. According to a significant majority of experts in this study, large air markets in Asia (especially China) will not be keen supporters of extensive liberalization. This parallels the opinions of Havel and Sanchez [14] who contend that “rising economic powers such as China and Russia remain leery of high-octane liberalization” (p. 16). Thus, despite some movement in the direction of accepting the European community carrier concept [9], China – much like the US – is not likely to push for, nor support, efforts aimed at substantial regional multilateralism in the foreseeable future [15].
3.1 EU regional model
The sub-theme EU regional model emerged from the transferability key theme and adopted the perspective of the European regional single air market as a prime example of what regional multilateralism might look like elsewhere around the world in future. To this effect, Forecast 12 on the main survey 2 contended: Regional single air blocs (single air markets) similar to that currently represented by the EU, will become the dominant market structure for the global airline industry in the next 10 years or so. A majority of experts (62%) agreed with this assertion, although nearly a quarter disagreed (23%), while consensus set at 75% or higher was not reached. Even so, this level of agreement might have been moderated by the timeframe given, and/or by the use of the expression “dominant market structure”. The results here are significant enough to suggest that the European model may yet take hold elsewhere according to most study experts, and therefore, progressively challenge the more widespread contemporary bilateral system.
Most interviewees (69%) felt that there was value in closely considering the implications and lessons from the European airline industry and regional single air market; however, almost all stopped short of classifying it as a global model to be followed elsewhere. This guarded approach to Europe’s wider global influence and power is reflected in the air transport literature as well [3, 12, 39]. Interviewee 5 rhetorically asked: “Is it a model? I don’t think it is to be honest … it hasn’t really changed a huge amount with respect to international” considerations. Interviewee 7 agreed, arguing that the EU and its single market make “complete sense [but] I see the European example as an anomaly”. Interviewee 2 expounded on this same point, contending that “the Europeans had a sort of cultural … advantage; let’s be realistic, it’s taken them 40 odd years … even the aviation stuff came in fits and starts”. Interviewee 8 followed a similar line of argument, stating that although Europe’s single air market represents a good model, it “is not easily replicable in other contexts, because of population, geography, economy and different political systems”. Moreover, Interviewee 13 observed that “the [supranational] mechanisms which brought the European Union into a multilateral free market aren’t, to be fair, in other parts of the world”. He then gave the examples of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa and how neither has an “effective mechanism” to push national governments into collective agreement to turn aspirations into actions. Havel and Sanchez [14] concur with such sentiments, maintaining that the US and China for instance “are equally unenthusiastic about … supranational institution-making” like that associated with the EU (p. 10).
3.2 Extraterritoriality
The sub-theme extraterritoriality covers Europe’s power and influence outside its single air market. Evidently, study experts were less optimistic about Europe’s aviation power and direct industry influence in this regard. Forecast 11 on the main survey 2 almost achieved consensus agreement (74%) to the assertion that: In a massive and highly complex system like the global airline industry, the EU can provide interesting insights into its likely future, but beyond that, its power and influence to shape the industry’s future development is limited. Only 9 % of experts disagreed here, while the remaining 17% opted for neutral. The most interesting statistically significant result here was for Europe as a region of best industry knowledge (T-value was 1.778. P-value was 0.042). The fact that those experts with best industry knowledge in Europe were more inclined to agree with Forecast 11 (83%) compared with the group ‘other’ (i.e. those who did not select Europe), suggests that observations and comments found throughout the air transport literature that highlight Europe’s mostly unique journey to a single air market, can be said to be founded on a fairly solid footing [13, 15, 37].
The notion of Europe using its power and influence to shape the global airline industry’s future is encapsulated in its to date unsuccessful attempts to include foreign airlines in its emissions trading scheme (ETS) to combat climate change [26]. Opponents point to the apparent failure of this extraterritorial approach as evidence that the bilateral system in global aviation remains dominant, while supporters of Europe’s tactics here highlight how the EU was able to elevate the issue to a global level, and thus encourage the industry to take climate change more seriously [12, 15]. Results from this study show that the EU ETS failed to achieve majority support (49%) on Forecast 3 as a likely future model of how to effectively deal with airline industry emissions.
Irrespective of how one looks at Europe’s attempts to raise the profile of aviation’s contribution to climate change, the fact remains that the internal market dynamics of the European regional single air market are much easier to influence and shape – and indeed regulate – than are wider industry issues and considerations outside of safety, security and technical standardization and harmonization [15]. Added to this, Europe’s attempts to influence and shape global aviation are seen by some “as divisive” and counterproductive ([11], p. 72). This is clear in the opinions covering the EU ETS voiced by Interviewee 5 who contended that in an international aviation context “you can’t just add a tax; I mean that violates a couple of articles in most air service agreements that I have seen”. Even so, Button [3] maintains that since the 1990s the European single air market has generated “both knock-on and demonstration effects for [other] regions” around the world (p. 60). Likewise, Pitfield [32] also notes the “demonstration effects” of the 2008 US-EU open skies agreement, claiming that a number of other countries are pondering (and some even pursuing) “similar initiatives” (p. 311). In fact, Europe has followed a policy of negotiating “comprehensive air transport agreements with selected partners all over the world” since the early 2000s; not just to strengthen the industry in Europe, but also to “seek to reform international civil aviation” ([12], p. 428). However, whether such a global reform agenda – poignantly demonstrated via the EU ETS experiences – can move beyond “hortatory resolutions” is an open question at present ([15], p. 231). Similarly, on the broader related topic of multilateral air market liberalization, “it is hard to tell where rhetoric ends and reality begins” ([18], para. 3).
3.3 North Atlantic single air market?
If international multilateral liberalization is to ever substantially move beyond the European regional single air market to something even bigger, then the North Atlantic – principally used here to mean Europe and the US domestic air market – has long been touted in the air transport literature as the location most likely for this to occur [13, 28]. The sub-theme North Atlantic single air market emerged from the study’s data and primarily sought to gauge the likelihood of the US domestic air market merging with the European regional single air market in the foreseeable future. Most experts on the main survey 1, multiple choice question 15 (MCQ 15), were not very convinced that this would happen anytime soon. The survey question asked: How likely do you think it is that the US and EU will create a single North Atlantic air market in the foreseeable future? Half of the experts for this question opted for either “zero chance” (6%) or “unlikely” (44%), while one third (34%) selected “50/50”. Meanwhile, only 13% chose “likely”, and finally 3% were the most optimistic and elected “almost certain”.
One major barrier to a North Atlantic single air market are US airline ownership and control rules, which are some of the most restrictive in the world today [15]. Once again, most experts in this study were not confident change was likely in future. This was shown on the main survey 2, where Forecast 18 contended that: US foreign ownership and control restrictions will not be lifted or eased any time soon. Consensus agreement was almost reached here with 73% of experts agreeing (26% strongly). Disagreement only managed 9% here, of which 3% was strongly disagree. The remaining 18% of experts chose the neutral option. On the surface these results might seem at odds with the long history of support the US has shown for open skies agreements; however, a closer look reveals that the US has always pushed a decidedly national interest based agenda in its aviation diplomacy [34]. This US view of open skies accords reveals their important role as “instruments of foreign policy” ([24], p. 94), and of how the US in these agreements is “blatantly protective of US carriers” ([7], p. 57). European attempts aimed at encouraging the US to change its ownership and control restrictions have met with little more than assurances that the issue will be considered in future [15].
Sentiments surrounding the national interest motives of the US also emerged during the final stage interviews. For instance, Interviewee 6 maintained that the US likes to “push free markets, but really they emphasise self-interest”. Interviewee 13, who labelled himself “a free market economist” agreed, observing that the US has encouraged liberalization since the mid-1940s, but always “as and when it suits and benefits the US carriers”. Given the bilateral system in global aviation is in many ways predicated on national interests [15, 20], it is little wonder that wider multilateral liberalization was seen by many experts in this study as likely to be patchy and uneven in future. Europe is evidently pushing against a powerful and entrenched bilateral system globally that is strengthened by geography and a long history of countries defending and protecting their airlines and air markets. As Interviewee 5 argued: “The reality is that the bilateral system exists for a reason” and it will not be replaced any time soon. He went on to highlight its economic benefits which he contended should not simply be “traded away”.
